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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 49

Washington Commanders 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to PHI 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.04 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.78 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model