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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 25 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model