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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 1-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to WAS 28, Center-45-R.Lovato. 37-G.Stroman to WAS 29 for 1 yard (36-D.Hall).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.36 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 35, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model