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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 20 at the 26

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(13:49) 3-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.48 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model