Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 20 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to GB 14, Center-46-J.Condo. 23-J.Alexander MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 14. PENALTY on GB-98-F.Brown, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at GB 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.25 EP
75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model