4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Joe Philbin
Sunday 2018-12-09 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 4.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

ATL
40.9%
GB
59.1%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.161 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.183 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 22
–
GB 25
Projected margin: GB by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

ATL

Logan Paulsen TE Out Knee
Matt Bryant K Questionable Back

GB

Raven Greene S Out Ankle
Bryan Bulaga T Doubtful Knee
Byron Bell G Questionable Knee
Bashaud Breeland CB Questionable Groin
Kentrell Brice S Questionable Ankle
Hunter Bradley LS Questionable Ankle
Lane Taylor G Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 20
–
GB 34

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:43 TD ATL (11:43) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – GB 0
  • Q1 07:16 TD GB (7:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – GB 6
  • Q2 07:45 FG GB (7:45) 2-M.Crosby 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. ATL 7 – GB 10
  • Q2 06:08 TD GB (6:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Breeland at ATL 22. 26-B.Breeland for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – GB 16
  • Q2 00:04 FG GB (:04) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. ATL 7 – GB 20
  • Q3 12:49 TD GB (12:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 18-R.Cobb for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – GB 26
  • Q3 05:57 TD GB (5:57) 33-A.Jones right tackle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – GB 33
  • Q4 13:39 TD ATL (13:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – GB 34
  • Q4 00:18 TD ATL (:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 14-J.Hardy for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 20 – GB 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 GB 4th & 20 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (15:00) 6-J.Scott punts 45 yards to ATL 22, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 12 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:01) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to GB 25, Center-46-J.Condo, downed by ATL-36-K.Ishmael.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 16 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 69%

    (7:45) 2-M.Crosby 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 20 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:56) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to GB 14, Center-46-J.Condo. 23-J.Alexander MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 14. PENALTY on GB-98-F.Brown, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at GB 14.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 74%

    (:04) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:30) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to GB 22, Center-46-J.Condo. 23-J.Alexander MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 24. 23-J.Alexander to GB 24 for no gain (83-R.Gage).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 14 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:55) 5-M.Bosher punts 47 yards to GB 23, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 12 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:54) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to ATL 32, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 65%

    (14:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 25-I.Smith pushed ob at GB 23 for 11 yards (93-R.Gilbert).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:49) 6-J.Scott punts 57 yards to ATL 25, Center-43-H.Bradley. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 39 for 14 yards (84-L.Kendricks).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:44) 6-J.Scott punts 20 yards to ATL 46, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 62%

    (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu to GB 27 for 8 yards (50-B.Martinez).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 90%

    (:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 14-J.Hardy for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.