Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 75

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to GB 22, Center-46-J.Condo. 23-J.Alexander MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 24. 23-J.Alexander to GB 24 for no gain (83-R.Gage).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.80 EP
65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model