Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Green Bay Packers 34

(3:55) 5-M.Bosher punts 47 yards to GB 23, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.21 EP
69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model