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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 34

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Green Bay Packers 34

What Actually Happened

(14:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 25-I.Smith pushed ob at GB 23 for 11 yards (93-R.Gilbert).

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.81 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model