Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 82

Green Bay Packers 34 – Atlanta Falcons 14

(10:49) 6-J.Scott punts 57 yards to ATL 25, Center-43-H.Bradley. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 39 for 14 yards (84-L.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 82, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model