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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model