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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2018-12-09 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🥶 Cold Spread 6.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

BAL
21.2%
KC
78.8%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.394 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) -0.253 EPA/dropback
  • KC offense: +0.226 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 20
–
KC 29
Projected margin: KC by 9 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

BAL

Tony Jefferson S Doubtful Ankle
Alex Lewis G Questionable Shoulder
Joe Flacco QB Questionable Hip
James Hurst G Questionable Back
Anthony Levine S Questionable Ankle
Tim Williams LB Questionable Ankle
Tavon Young CB Questionable Groin
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Groin

KC

Sammy Watkins WR Doubtful Foot
Demetrius Harris TE Questionable Knee
Eric Berry S Questionable Heel

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 24
–
KC 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:07 TD KC (3:07) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 14:22 TD BAL (14:22) (Shotgun) 30-K.Dixon right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – KC 7
  • Q2 07:05 FG BAL (7:05) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 10 – KC 7
  • Q2 02:42 TD KC (2:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – KC 13
  • Q2 00:04 FG KC (:04) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. BAL 10 – KC 17
  • Q3 03:16 TD BAL (3:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 87-M.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – KC 17
  • Q4 04:10 TD BAL (4:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 13-J.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 23 – KC 17
  • Q4 00:57 TD KC (:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 26-Dam. Williams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 24 – KC 23
  • Q5 04:46 FG KC (4:46) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. BAL 24 – KC 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 39%

    (11:30) 2-D.Colquitt punts 30 yards to BAL 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 14 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:55) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to KC 19, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 25 for 6 yards (36-C.Clark).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 73%

    (11:42) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (7:05) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:49) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to KC 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-T.Hill to KC 19 for 7 yards (48-P.Onwuasor; 37-J.Allen).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (:04) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 59%

    (11:46) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to KC 39 for no gain (97-A.Bailey).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%

    (3:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 87-M.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 66%

    (15:00) 42-A.Sherman up the middle to BAL 34 for 2 yards (55-T.Suggs).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 13 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 56%

    (11:28) 2-D.Colquitt punts 31 yards to BAL 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-19-M.Kemp.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 13 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:24) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to BAL 31, Center-41-J.Winchester. 27-C.Jones to KC 14 for 55 yards (19-M.Kemp).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill ran ob at BAL 12 for 48 yards [90-Z.Smith].

  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 5 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 26-Dam. Williams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.