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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 6

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(:04) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +3.57 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 6, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model