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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 39

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(11:46) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to KC 39 for no gain (97-A.Bailey).

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.43 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model