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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 47

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 2-D.Colquitt punts 30 yards to BAL 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.91 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model