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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(3:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 87-M.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.47 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model