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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 40

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 2-D.Colquitt punts 31 yards to BAL 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-19-M.Kemp.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.21 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model