4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 81

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to BAL 31, Center-41-J.Winchester. 27-C.Jones to KC 14 for 55 yards (19-M.Kemp).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.21 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 38, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model