Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Baltimore Ravens 24

(1:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill ran ob at BAL 12 for 48 yards [90-Z.Smith].

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.56 EP
62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -2.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model