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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 54

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to LAC 7, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.59 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model