CIN @ LAC — 4th & Data

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Los Angeles Chargers

10-3 HC Anthony Lynn

Sunday 2018-12-09 · 16:05 ET StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 17.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

CIN

15.3%

LAC

84.7%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

LAC offense: +0.212 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
QB edge to LAC: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.346 vs Jeff Driskel (CIN) -0.108 EPA/dropback
CIN offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
CIN defense: +0.163 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CIN 17 10–24

–

LAC 32 25–39

Projected margin: LAC by 15 Projected total: 49

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 14

CIN

Vontaze Burfict LB Out Concussion

Cordy Glenn T Out Back

Dre Kirkpatrick CB Out Ankle

Tony McRae CB Out Concussion

Josh Malone WR Questionable Hamstring

LAC

Melvin Gordon RB Out Knee

Trevor Williams CB Out Knee

Sean Culkin TE Doubtful Back

Brandon Mebane DT Doubtful Not Injury Related

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 21

–

LAC 26

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 11:46 TD LAC (11:46) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – LAC 6
Q1 06:28 FG CIN (6:28) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – LAC 7
Q2 14:56 TD LAC (14:56) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – LAC 13
Q2 05:05 FG CIN (5:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 6 – LAC 14
Q2 00:25 TD CIN (:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short middle to 15-J.Ross for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 12 – LAC 14
Q2 00:00 FG LAC (:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. CIN 12 – LAC 17
Q3 07:42 FG LAC (7:42) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. CIN 12 – LAC 20
Q4 12:17 FG CIN (12:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 15 – LAC 20
Q4 07:50 FG LAC (7:50) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. CIN 15 – LAC 23
Q4 01:54 TD CIN (1:54) 66-T.Hopkins and 94-S.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 21 – LAC 23
Q4 00:54 FG LAC (:54) 4-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. CIN 21 – LAC 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 78%

(6:28) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(12:16) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to LAC 7, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 20-D.King.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 LAC 4th & 12 at the 95

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(10:32) 5-D.Jones punts 41 yards to LAC 46, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-23-R.Jenkins.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 5

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

(5:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 88

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(3:50) 5-D.Jones punts 56 yards to CIN 32, Center-47-M.Windt. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 46 for 14 yards (48-N.Dzubnar; 51-K.Emanuel).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 LAC 4th & 11 at the 94

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(1:44) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to LAC 44, Center-47-M.Windt. 12-A.Erickson to LAC 35 for 9 yards (51-K.Emanuel; 29-J.Richards). LAC-51-K.Emanuel was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 65

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69%

(12:51) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to CIN 35 for no gain (43-M.Davis, 37-J.Addae).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 26

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 72% p(FG) 83%

(11:09) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to CIN 24 for 2 yards (59-N.Vigil; 90-M.Johnson). CIN-99-A.Billings was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

(7:42) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 CIN 4th & 12 at the 39

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 55%

(4:07) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 35 yards to LAC 4, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-12-A.Erickson.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 77

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP

p(convert) 67%

(1:10) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to CIN 39, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 80%

(12:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 14

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 95%

(7:50) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 27 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 81%

(:54) 4-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.
See the full breakdown →

Cincinnati Bengals