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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 88

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 5-D.Jones punts 56 yards to CIN 32, Center-47-M.Windt. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 46 for 14 yards (48-N.Dzubnar; 51-K.Emanuel).

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 88, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 46, worth -2.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model