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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 94

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to LAC 44, Center-47-M.Windt. 12-A.Erickson to LAC 35 for 9 yards (51-K.Emanuel; 29-J.Richards). LAC-51-K.Emanuel was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.81 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 94, worth -5.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 52, worth -2.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model