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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 39

Cincinnati Bengals 12 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:07) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 35 yards to LAC 4, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.23 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model