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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 77

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to CIN 39, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.15 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP