4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(:54) 4-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.28 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model