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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 50

Denver Broncos 0 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 3-C.Wadman punts 35 yards to SF 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-89-B.Parker.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.52 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model