Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- SF offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- SF defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- QB edge to SF: Nick Mullens (SF) +0.110 vs Case Keenum (DEN) -0.017 EPA/dropback
- DEN offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
- DEN defense: -0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 14
DEN
SF
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:28 FG SF (10:28) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion. DEN 0 – SF 3
- Q2 13:04 FG SF (13:04) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion. DEN 0 – SF 6
- Q2 10:00 TD SF (10:00) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 30. 70-YAC DEN 0 – SF 12
- Q2 00:12 TD SF (:12) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 18-D.Pettis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-41-I.Yiadom was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. DEN 0 – SF 19
- Q3 06:07 TD DEN (6:07) (Shotgun) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – SF 20
- Q4 03:57 TD DEN (3:57) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 17-D.Hamilton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 2. 2-YAC DEN 13 – SF 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%
(10:28) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(9:27) 3-C.Wadman punts 55 yards to SF 24, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 13-R.James MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 24. 13-R.James to SF 24 for no gain (35-D.Thomas). PENALTY on SF-47-E.Lee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 24.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 54%
(4:57) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-40-C.Holba, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 61%
(2:19) 3-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to SF 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 81-T.Taylor ran ob at SF 19 for 8 yards.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%
(13:04) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DEN 4th & 13 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 29%
(10:09) 3-C.Wadman punts 35 yards to SF 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-89-B.Parker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 15 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(1:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to DEN 21, Center-40-C.Holba, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(1:14) 3-C.Wadman punts 39 yards to SF 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DEN 4th & 16 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(13:04) 3-C.Wadman punts 53 yards to SF 26, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 81-T.Taylor to SF 44 for 18 yards (38-S.Thomas).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 71%
(8:40) 32-A.Janovich up the middle to SF 30 for 3 yards (91-A.Armstead; 93-D.Jones).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 89%
(6:32) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 81-T.Patrick ran ob at SF 3 for 19 yards. Caught at SF 5. 2-YAC
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 25%
(2:18) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to DEN 8, Center-40-C.Holba. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 8 for no gain (33-T.Moore, 26-G.Mabin). Penalty on DEN-43-J.Jones, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(12:48) (Shotgun) 30-P.Lindsay right end pushed ob at DEN 46 for 2 yards (54-C.Marsh).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 89%
(8:42) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 30-P.Lindsay to SF 21 for 1 yard (36-M.Harris). Caught at SF 21; 0 YAC
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 60%
(7:04) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to DEN 31, Center-40-C.Holba. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 31 for no gain (33-T.Moore).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 24Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 86%
(5:40) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 81-T.Patrick ran ob at SF 15 for 9 yards. SF-33-T.Moore was injured during the play. Caught at SF 15; 0 YAC
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 6 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%
(4:24) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle to SF 3 for 3 yards (36-M.Harris).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 1 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%
(3:57) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 17-D.Hamilton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 2. 2-YAC
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