Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 67

Denver Broncos 0 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(1:14) 3-C.Wadman punts 39 yards to SF 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP

56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.21 EP
44% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model