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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 22

Denver Broncos 0 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 81-T.Patrick ran ob at SF 3 for 19 yards. Caught at SF 5. 2-YAC

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.58 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model