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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Denver Broncos
4th & 1 at the 6
Denver Broncos 7 – San Francisco 49ers 20
What Actually Happened
(4:24) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle to SF 3 for 3 yards (36-M.Harris).
The Three Options
GO
+3.69 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.66 EP
- 34% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.08 EP
KICK
+2.16 EP
- 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
- 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT
-0.14 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
