4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-40-C.Holba, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.77 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP