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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 61

Denver Broncos 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 3-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to SF 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 81-T.Taylor ran ob at SF 19 for 8 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.81 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP