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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 36

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 5-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.61 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 36, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model