Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- ARI offense: -0.220 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- Josh Rosen (ARI): -0.277 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- DET defense: +0.151 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 14
DET
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 09:40 FG DET (9:40) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – ARI 0
- Q3 03:16 TD DET (3:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 16-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay [95-R.Okwara] at DET 33. 23-D.Slay for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – ARI 0
- Q4 08:18 FG ARI (8:18) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. DET 10 – ARI 3
- Q4 04:09 TD DET (4:09) 34-Z.Zenner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – ARI 3
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ARI 4th & 16 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(10:44) 2-A.Lee punts 45 yards to DET 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-T.Jones to DET 35 for 4 yards (58-T.Armbrister).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 53%
(8:37) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to ARI 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(6:32) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to DET 22, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DET 4th & 17 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(4:32) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to ARI 35, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at DET 47 for 18 yards (32-T.Wilson). PENALTY on ARI-38-D.Amerson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 37.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 32%
(2:39) 2-A.Lee punts 35 yards to DET 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-B.Ellington MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 16. 12-B.Ellington ran ob at DET 16 for no gain.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 80%
(9:40) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ARI 4th & 16 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 66%
(5:22) 5-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DET 4th & 15 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(4:11) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to ARI 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 24 for 11 yards (57-E.Harold). DET-32-T.Wilson was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ARI 4th & 17 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(2:00) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to DET 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 28-Q.Diggs to DET 17 for 4 yards (47-E.Turner; 59-J.Walker).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 28%
(:40) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to ARI 7, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 19 for 12 yards (38-M.Ford).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(11:41) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback. PENALTY on DET-50-N.Grigsby, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 20.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 54%
(7:54) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to ARI 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 14 for 1 yard (17-A.Jones).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 69%
(1:00) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to DET 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 28-Q.Diggs.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(13:43) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to ARI 44, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson to DET 44 for 12 yards (26-D.Shead). PENALTY on ARI-92-D.Gardeck, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 44.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(8:18) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ARI 4th & 20 at the 49 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 21% p(FG) 34%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass incomplete deep middle to 86-R.Seals-Jones.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 51 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 30%
(1:34) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to ARI 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.
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