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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 17 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to DET 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 28-Q.Diggs to DET 17 for 4 yards (47-E.Turner; 59-J.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.53 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 28, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model