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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 52

Detroit Lions 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(:40) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to ARI 7, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 19 for 12 yards (38-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.07 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model