Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback. PENALTY on DET-50-N.Grigsby, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.87 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 56, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model