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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 64

Detroit Lions 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to ARI 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 14 for 1 yard (17-A.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.93 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP