Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 76

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(10:44) 2-A.Lee punts 45 yards to DET 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-T.Jones to DET 35 for 4 yards (58-T.Armbrister).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.42 EP
73% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 76, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model