Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 50

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 2-A.Lee punts 35 yards to DET 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-B.Ellington MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 16. 12-B.Ellington ran ob at DET 16 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.21 EP
62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP

KICK -1.02 EP

32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
68% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model