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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 32-T.Mathieu to HOU 27 for 6 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model