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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2018-12-09 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

IND
49.2%
HOU
50.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • HOU offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to IND: Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.110 vs Andrew Luck (IND) +0.140 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

IND 23
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

IND

Mo Alie-Cox TE Out Calf
Dontrelle Inman WR Out Shoulder
Ryan Kelly C Out Knee
Michael Mitchell S Out Calf
Denico Autry DT Questionable Back
Nate Hairston CB Questionable Ankle
T.Y. Hilton WR Questionable Shoulder
Margus Hunt DT Questionable Knee
Chris Milton CB Questionable Hamstring

HOU

Zach Fulton G Out Hand
Keke Coutee WR Questionable Hamstring
Johnathan Joseph CB Questionable Neck
Brennan Scarlett LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 24
–
HOU 21

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:31 TD HOU (2:31) 28-A.Blue right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – HOU 6
  • Q2 06:39 TD IND (6:39) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – HOU 7
  • Q2 03:03 TD IND (3:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 85-E.Ebron for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – HOU 7
  • Q2 00:04 FG IND (:04) 4-A.Vinatieri 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 17 – HOU 7
  • Q3 07:41 TD HOU (7:41) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-L.Miller. 26-L.Miller left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 17 – HOU 13
  • Q3 03:57 TD IND (3:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 14-Z.Pascal for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 23 – HOU 14
  • Q4 02:44 TD HOU (2:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 24 – HOU 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:38) 2-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-D.Carter to HOU 26 for 12 yards (46-L.Rhodes).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (11:40) 8-T.Daniel punts 52 yards to IND 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers pushed ob at IND 40 for 26 yards (20-J.Reid). PENALTY on HOU-33-A.Moore, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at IND 40.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:55) 2-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:21) 8-T.Daniel punts 53 yards to IND 33, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 41 for 8 yards (58-P.Kalambayi).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 30%

    (6:43) 2-R.Sanchez punts 33 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 93%

    (4:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 83-J.Thomas to IND 12 for 6 yards (50-A.Walker; 26-C.Geathers).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (1:05) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 32-T.Mathieu to HOU 27 for 6 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 44%

    (14:13) 8-T.Daniel punts 36 yards to IND 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 19 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:32) 8-T.Daniel punts 50 yards to IND 44, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to HOU 45 for 11 yards (33-A.Moore). PENALTY on IND-30-G.Odum, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 46.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:23) 8-T.Daniel punts 41 yards to IND 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers MUFFS catch, and recovers at IND 34. 80-C.Rogers to IND 34 for no gain (33-A.Moore).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:22) 8-T.Daniel punts 49 yards to IND 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (7:41) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-L.Miller. 26-L.Miller left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 12 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 61%

    (14:13) 8-T.Daniel punts 31 yards to IND 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 15 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 30%

    (9:58) 2-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to HOU 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 32-T.Mathieu.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:52) 8-T.Daniel punts 50 yards to IND 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 23 for 11 yards (20-J.Reid; 41-Z.Cunningham).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 41%

    (4:40) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback. PENALTY on IND-26-C.Geathers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 20.