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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 69

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 2-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-D.Carter to HOU 26 for 12 yards (46-L.Rhodes).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP