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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 94

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 8-T.Daniel punts 50 yards to IND 44, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to HOU 45 for 11 yards (33-A.Moore). PENALTY on IND-30-G.Odum, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 46.

The Three Options

GO -3.50 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.47 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 94, worth -5.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 52, worth -2.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model