Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 75

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 8-T.Daniel punts 41 yards to IND 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers MUFFS catch, and recovers at IND 34. 80-C.Rogers to IND 34 for no gain (33-A.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model