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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 66

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 8-T.Daniel punts 52 yards to IND 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers pushed ob at IND 40 for 26 yards (20-J.Reid). PENALTY on HOU-33-A.Moore, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at IND 40.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.35 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 24, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP