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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 1

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(7:41) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-L.Miller. 26-L.Miller left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 1, worth +0.53 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model