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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 62

Houston Texans 14 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 8-T.Daniel punts 50 yards to IND 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 23 for 11 yards (20-J.Reid; 41-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.24 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model