Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 86

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(8:21) 8-T.Daniel punts 53 yards to IND 33, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 41 for 8 yards (58-P.Kalambayi).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.72 EP
70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 86, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model